Guys, lo tau nggak sih kalau pas kebakaran hutan paling mematikan di Los Angeles terjadi Januari 2025 lalu, ada orang-orang yang justru nge-bet duit di prediction markets soal gimana api itu bakal nge-spread, kapan bisa containment, sampe berapa acre tanah yang bakal ke-roast?
Serius, ini bukan clickbait.
Wildfire Prediction Markets: Apa Itu?
Jadi gini ceritanya. Prediction markets itu intinya kayak platform gambling, tapi lo nggak betting soal pertandingan bola atau hasil election. Lo betting soal outcome dari events — bisa soal cuaca, disease spread, atau... ya, kebakaran hutan.
Platform kayak Polymarket nge-list pertanyaan-pertanyaan kayak: "Will the Palisades Fire reach Santa Monica by Sunday?" atau "How many acres will Palisades Fire burn by Friday?" Harga contract-nya bergerak antara $0 sampai $1, dan kalau price-nya 50 cents di "yes" contract, berarti orang-orang collectively percaya event itu 50% bakal terjadi.
January 2025 lalu, almost 20 pertanyaan tentang Southern California wildfires listed di Polymarket. Total duit yang dibetting? $1.2 juta USD.
Wyldfyre: Platform Baru yang Makin Controversial
Nah ini yang bikin eyebrow naik. Ahead of fire season yang diprediksi bakal intense, muncul platform baru namanya Wyldfyre. Tagline mereka? "You can't predict wildfire. But you can trade on it."
Dude, seriously?
Wyldfyre ngaku sebagai "first prediction market" yang fokus pricing county dan city wildfire risk in real time. Mereka pakai data dari NASA dan National Interagency Fire Center. Currently sih masih simulate trading, tapi according to the site, kemampuan betting pakai real money "coming soon."
Yang creepy? High Country News nggak bisa nentuin siapa owner platform ini. Website-nya opaque — nggak ada contact information, nggak ada transparansi. Red flag much?
Fire Survivors: "Morally Reprehensible"
Sylvie Andrews, yang kehilangan rumahnya di Altadena pas Eaton Fire, blood, sweat, and tears-nya invested dalam rumah itu selama 10 tahun — semuanya hangus.
"My first take is that it's morally reprehensible," katanya pas tau ada $1.2 juta dibetting soal fires yang ngerusak kehidupan orang.
Susan Sherman yang juga kehilangan childhood home di Pacific Palisades (orangtuanya punya sejak 1963) bilang lebih blunt: "I look at (betting on the fires) as just being very crass and heartless."
Why This Is Actually Dangerous
Ini bukan cuma soal ethics, bro. Ada real safety concerns:
1. Arson Risk
Unlike hurricanes atau flooding yang nggak bisa dimanipulasi sama orang, fire bisa di-start sama satu orang dalam hitungan menit. "Systems that tie financial gain to wildfire outcomes risk encouraging misuse, including arson," jelas spokesperson US Forest Service.
2. Insider Trading Potential
Ann Skeet dari Markkula Center for Applied Ethics di Santa Clara University nawarin scenario yang bikin chills: Firefighters atau land managers yang punya exclusive information soal fire behavior atau agency's firefighting plans bisa aja tergoda buat betting. That would be considered insider trading.
3. Diminishing Value of Human Life
"When you start gambling on somebody's potential death or harm, you're really diminishing the value that you're placing on human life," kata Skeet.
Federal Agencies: Kami Nggak Pake Prediction Market Data
Jangan khawatir — federal agencies emang nggak reliance on prediction market data buat fire forecasting. US Forest Service dan Cal Fire pake "scientifically based fire-behavior modeling" yang deterministic dan physics-based, pakai data dari National Weather Service, NOAA, dan National Interagency Fire Center.
"Our priority is protecting firefighters, communities, and public lands," kata Forest Service spokesperson. "We do not rely on any system that treats wildfire as an event for speculation."
Legislation Efforts
Politicians mulai concerned. Representatives dari Utah dan California lagi push federal legislation yang bakal prohibit betting "related to terrorism, assassination, war, gaming, or illegal activity." California senator juga lagi develop companion legislation yang bakal explicitly ban contracts about "an individual's death."
Minnesota jadi state pertama yang outlaw hosting atau advertising prediction markets (though not betting itself), tapi federal government promptly sued.
Hold up though — nggak ada dari proposed restrictions yang explicitly include wildfire. Jadi ya, masih gray area.
Geek Opinion
Lo bisa argue kalau prediction markets itu basically crowdsourcing intelligence — aggregate wisdom of the crowd dan segala macem. Tapi ketika event yang lo betting-on involve nyawa manusia dan livelihoods, the calculus berubah drastis.
Wyldfyre specifically framing their platform sebagai "public good" sambil bilang "California burns. Every year. And it's getting worse. The question isn't if—it's where and when" itu... let me tell you, that's some cold calculus right there.
Andreas cuma hope satu hal: "If someone won money in gambling with our fate, I would hope that they might be ashamed of themselves, and take that money and donate it directly to fire survivors."
Idealistic? Mungkin. But honestly, that's the bare minimum.
This article was originally published by High Country News as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.
